He鈥檚 hell-bent on restoring blue-collar American manufacturing to its former glory, considers free trade a dirty word and wants Canada to wade voluntarily into a failed, gang-ravaged state that鈥檚 a quagmire waiting to happen.
To be sure, Joe Biden is no Donald Trump. But he doesn鈥檛 always make it obvious.
The U.S. president arrives in Ottawa tonight on a whirlwind 24-hour visit 鈥� a significantly less elaborate itinerary than first envisioned in the Prime Minister鈥檚 Office 鈥� two full years since becoming commander-in-chief.
鈥淭his will be the first true, in-person bilateral meeting between the two leaders in Canada since 2009,鈥� said White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby.
The first year of Biden鈥檚 term focused on rebuilding Canada-U.S. relations following Trump鈥檚 divisive term in office. The second focused on meeting obligations, 鈥渋ncluding prioritizing orderly and safe migration through regular pathways,鈥� Kirby said.
鈥淣ow, heading into the third, this visit is about taking stock of what we鈥檝e done, where we are and what we need to prioritize for the future.鈥�
While he鈥檚 far less undiplomatic and publicly combative than his both-barrels predecessor, Biden鈥檚 first two years in the Oval Office produced more than enough political headaches for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Friday鈥檚 meetings may not offer much remedy.
High on Canada鈥檚 wish list will be frank talk on Buy American, the age-old protectionist doctrine resurrected by every 21st-century president short of George W. Bush and one of Biden鈥檚 favourite domestic political messages.
鈥淭he president is very committed to policies that create jobs in the United States, and we don鈥檛 take issue with that policy,鈥� said Kirsten Hillman, Canada鈥檚 ambassador to the U.S.
鈥淲hat we say is 鈥� when you apply it to Canada and deeply integrated Canada supply chains, it does not serve your policy purpose. It does the exact opposite.鈥�
Fully 60 per cent of the physical goods that Canada sells stateside 鈥済o into the manufacturing of other products,鈥� and much the same is true of what Canada buys from the U.S., she added.
鈥淪o if we start carving each other out of our supply chains, the economic impact on jobs in our own country is going to be enormous. We鈥檙e shooting ourselves in the foot, essentially 鈥� both countries.鈥�
Canada is also likely to be playing defence on Haiti, the impoverished, quake-ravaged Caribbean nation on the island of Hispaniola that has devolved into a failed state since the 2021 assassination of president Jovenel Mo茂se.
Roving gangs of marauders now control more than half of Port-au-Prince, the capital city of a country in the grips of a cholera outbreak with little access to medical help, a near-total lack of public security and a powerless interim government.
The Biden administration, its hands full with Russia鈥檚 war in Ukraine, the rise of China and other great-power concerns, wants Canada 鈥� home to a large diaspora of French-speaking Haitians, mostly in Quebec 鈥� to take a lead role.
鈥淚t鈥檚 a fair amount of pressure,鈥� said Carleton University professor Stephen Saideman. 鈥淭he reality is that Trudeau doesn鈥檛 want to do this, and so he comes up with whatever arguments he can to deflect this.鈥�
鈥淚 am hopeful 鈥� that Canada will be able to step in and take some leadership in Haiti, because that will matter in Washington,鈥� said Gordon Giffin, who served as Bill Clinton鈥檚 envoy to Ottawa from 1997 to 2001.
鈥淭aking that one off of our menu would be a big help to the U.S. administration.鈥�
Though it might seem simplistic at the highest levels of intergovernmental relations, the quid pro quo approach is foundational to how countries get along and manage various irritants in the relationship, he suggested.
鈥淚 do think it鈥檚 a prototypical example of the United States saying, 鈥榃e need you to help us out on this one,鈥欌�� Giffin told a panel hosted by the Americas Council and the Council of the Americas.
He recalled the frequent interactions between his old boss and Jean Chr茅tien, who was prime minister while Clinton was in the White House and a man Giffin described as 鈥渢he consummate dealmaker.鈥�
Chr茅tien 鈥渓ooked for places where Bill Clinton needed a little bit of help,鈥� Giffin said.
鈥淚 would very quickly hear, 鈥極K, we鈥檙e going to do this, Gordon, but for that, I need this,鈥欌�� he said in his best Chr茅tien drawl. 鈥淚鈥檓 sorry, that鈥檚 just human nature, and it鈥檚 part of the deal.鈥�
National Security Council spokesman John Kirby would not say Wednesday whether Biden intends to make a direct demand of Trudeau on Haiti.
鈥淭hey share a concern about the dire situation down there from a security and humanitarian perspective 鈥� this is not something that is unfamiliar to either the prime minister or the president,鈥� Kirby said.
鈥淎s for a multinational force or anything like that, I don鈥檛 want to get ahead of the conversation here. But as we鈥檝e said before, if there鈥檚 a need for that, if there鈥檚 a place for that, that鈥檚 all going to have to be worked out directly with the Haitian government and with the UN.鈥�
Kirby also played down expectations on another big Canadian ask: renegotiating the Safe Third Country Agreement, a 2004 treaty between the two countries that many blame for a recent spike in irregular migration.
On issues of migration, 鈥渨e鈥檙e well aware of Canadian concerns. We have concerns of our own,鈥� Kirby said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a hemispheric, shared regional challenge. So I have no doubt that they鈥檒l discuss it.鈥�
Senior government officials in Ottawa say the discussion on Haiti will involve the two leaders, but not Haitians themselves. Trudeau has so far focused on sanctions, helping Haitian authorities with surveillance support to track gang activity, and building a political consensus on how the West can best help.
Saideman, who has previously worked with the U.S. Department of Defense, said Ottawa is trying to avoid that at all costs. 鈥淭his government does not want to suffer tremendous costs or cement tremendous risks.鈥�
He noted that Canada鈥檚 largest deployment is currently in Latvia and Ottawa has agreed to expand its presence to shore up that country鈥檚 border with Russia.
Saideman said it would be impossible to expand that force while leading an intervention in Haiti, particularly because each deployed unit generally requires a second unit undergoing training and a third recovering from the previous rotation.
In addition, gang violence would be significantly more risky than past missions aimed at preventing clashes between warring armies, such as in Bosnia or Cyprus.
鈥淚鈥檓 not saying we shouldn鈥檛 do it, but I can see why the government is cautious about it,鈥� said Saideman, who is director of the Canadian Defence and Security Network.
鈥淚n Haiti, this has not been the first rodeo,鈥� he said. 鈥淭he previous missions didn鈥檛 fix things, didn鈥檛 lead to a lasting solution.鈥�
鈥擩ames McCarten, The Canadian Press
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