From threats of a trade war to fighting at hockey games, the relationship between the U.S. and its neighbour to the north has been tense in recent weeks as President Donald Trump announced since-delayed tariffs on imports from Canada and floated the idea of making the North American country the 51st U.S. state.
But have the rising tensions impacted Washington鈥檚 relationship with the neighboring Canadian province of British Columbia?
Are U.S.-Canada tensions impacting cross-border travel?
There are a few indications that the political tensions between the two countries could impact the number of Canadians who visit the U.S.
In a televised speech after the tariffs were announced, Canada鈥檚 Prime Minister Justin Trudeau urged the country鈥檚 residents to, among other things, consider 鈥渃hanging your summer vacation plans to stay here in Canada.鈥� Forbes reported that, around that time, Canada鈥檚 largest travel agency, Flight Centre, saw a significant wave of cancellations on flights to the U.S.
More recently, the Associated Press, Canadian Broadcast Channel, New York Post and The Independent have all published stories about Canadians canceling their travel plans to the U.S.
But is it an actual trend or just a few anecdotes 鈥� and more importantly for Washingtonians, is it affecting the state鈥檚 northern border? We asked the Canada Border Services Agency.
Washington, British Columbia border crossings down
While it鈥檚 too soon to definitively measure an impact, early numbers do show a decline in border crossings.
According to the Canada Border Services Agency, 68,146 Canadian citizens crossed into the U.S. at one of British Columbia鈥檚 16 southern border crossings, 13 of which it shares with Washington, between Feb. 2 and Feb. 8 鈥� the week the tariffs were slated to go into effect. That number represents a 26.5% drop from the previous week, when 92,707 people crossed the border, and a 29.6% drop from the week before.
It鈥檚 not just that the first week in February tends to see less traffic than usual, either. Across the same week last year, 99,025 Canadians crossed the border from British Columbia, according to CBSA.
David Blandford, executive director with State of Washington Tourism, said it鈥檚 possible that the state is seeing fewer visitors because of the tensions.
鈥淲e are hearing reports of Canadian travelers adjusting their plans due to the current political situation,鈥� Blandford told McClatchy in an email.
CBSA said it doesn鈥檛 have data for the week of Feb. 9 yet.
Crossings from the U.S. to British Columbia also went down during that stretch. The number of U.S. citizens crossing the border into British Columbia fell from 65,104 the week of Jan. 12, to 58,782 the following week, 50,920 the week of Jan. 26 and 44,328 the week of Feb. 2. That represents a 32% decrease in less than a month. However, compared to last year, the effect isn鈥檛 nearly as pronounced. In 2024, between 47,000 and 50,000 Americans crossed into British Columbia each week between late January and early February.
Is foreign policy impacting Canada border crossings?
The dip in border crossings isn鈥檛 necessarily entirely attributable to foreign policy, though.
The week of Jan. 12, 2024 saw almost identical numbers to early February of this year. That week, 38,883 people crossed from the U.S. into British Columbia, while 68,517 people made the trip the other way. Notably, that week also saw the first significant lowland snowfall of the year in northwest Washington, on the heels of a winter storm that hit the Pacific Northwest.
This year, the first significant lowland snowfall in the area came the week of Feb. 2.
Additionally, Washington state鈥檚 tourism agency noted in their email that border crossing data doesn鈥檛 account for all travel between Washington and British Columbia, and that the place where someone crosses the border doesn鈥檛 always reflect where they live or where they鈥檙e going.
How Canada border crossings affect Washington
According to State of Washington Tourism, nearly a quarter of the $2.45 billion a year that international visitors spend in Washington comes from Canadian residents visiting Seattle.
鈥淭ourism Economics data prepared for Visit Seattle showed that in 2023, the most recent complete year of data, 1.66 million Canadians visited Seattle and spent $555.5 million,鈥� Blandford said. 鈥淎t the time of this estimate, in the fourth quarter of 2024, visitation and spending were both projected to increase in 2024.鈥�
If cross-border travel does take a hit in the long run, it will have implications for Washington鈥檚 economy, according to Blandford.
鈥淲ashington state values our strong relationship with Canada, particularly with our neighbors in B.C.,鈥� Blandford said. 鈥淎s our top international market, Canadian visitors play a vital role in our tourism economy.鈥�
