The two B.C. regions that include resource-reliant communities like Smithers, Vanderhoof and Terrace stand to lose the most from tariffs, according to new research from the Institute for Research on Public Policy.
Drawing on data from Statistics Canada and other sources, the research tries to gauge the level of disruption caused by American tariffs on workers in industries that depend on exports to the United States.
While B.C. stands to be the least affected province, tariffs are likely to cause the greatest disruptions in regions of Bulkley-Nechako and the Kitimat-Stikine. The first region depends heavily on forestry, while the second includes Rio Tinto's aluminum smelter in Terrace, as well as other energy-related projects.
Counting existing countervailing duties, B.C. forest products could face tariffs exceeding 50 per cent, if not higher. Aluminum products are facing potential tariffs of least 25 per cent.
But these tariffs would have different impacts on different parts of the province and the research from IRPP offers a granular look at specific regions with data organized along census sub-divisions.
Home to just under 38,000 residents in 2021, almost three-in-10 workers in Bulkley-Nechako hold jobs in export-oriented industries with about 5.6 per cent of the total work exposed to U.S. tariffs. In the Kitimat-Stikine region, which is home to just under 38,000 residents in 2021, just under 18 per cent of workers hold jobs in export-oriented industries.
But a closer, more weighed look shows that export-oriented industries in that region rely even more on the United States to give the same region the same level of exposure as Bulkley-Nechako with 5.6 per cent.
Rounding out of the Top 5 are the Peace River and Cariboo (both 5.5 per cent) and Kootenay-Boundary (5.4). Regions potentially least affected by the tariffs include the Capital Region (1.5 per cent), Squamish-Lillooet (1.4 per cent) and the Central Coast (1.2 per cent). Greater Vancouver's exposure is 2.8 per cent and the fast-growing Fraser Valley is four per cent.
Notwithstanding some regional outliers, IRPP's research confirms the broader disconnect between the more diverse (and therefore more resilient) economies of urban B.C. and rural B.C.
Conservative Kamloops-North Thompson MLA Ward Stamer, who is the shadow minister of forests, said it is time for government to increase the available supply of fibre and push for a resolution of the long-running softwood lumber agreement to help communities like those in Bulkley-Nechako.
"We don't know if these tariffs are even going to be implemented and for how long," he said. "That's why we have been talking about the softwood lumber agreement."
He reiterated his party's proposal to impose a tax on American thermal coal shipping through B.C. ports as leverage to resolve the softwood lumber dispute and help secure some of the $10 billion currently held in escrow as part of the softwood lumber disputes.
He added that the forestry industry has been struggling before the perceived threats in calling for a higher allowable annual cut of up to 50 million cubic metres. The budget released this month projects that the AAC will hover around 30 million cubic metres for the next three years.
Stamer acknowledged the impacts of forest fires and the mountain pine beetle on available fibre supplies. "But the reality is, if Sweden can 100 million cubic metres a year, we should at least be able to do 50 million cubic metres. That was only three years ago."
Government has promised to get more value out of existing supplies and review fibre supplies available through BC Timber Sales, which manages about 20 per cent of the province鈥檚 allowable annual cut.
But timing is of the essence, Stamer said in blaming government regulations for the declining fibre supply. Mills that closed either permanently or temporarily in the past years have not closed because of tariffs, but because of fibre supply issues, Stamer said, adding that industry is already moving toward more value-added production.
He also warned that mills closing down in more rural and remote parts of the province because of fibre-supply issues will eventually have ripple-effect in the more urbanized parts of the province whose economies are currently more diverse and less reliant on resources.
"You want to start seeing significant hits (to the economy) in Vancouver and some of these other urbanized areas? Wait until some more mills close down."
Government has promised to revive the rural, and ultimately B.C.'s energy economy, through new mining and energy projects, but Stamer questioned the pace as the well as the math behind some of these projects.
"How many are able to come online this year?" he asked.
Stamer also shot back at B.C.'s Forest Minister, who had encouraged Stamer to spend more time listening to the concerns of the industry after Stamer had questioned the utility of Parmar's tour through the southern interior.
"I have been meeting with the groups more than he has," Stamer said.
