A B.C. expert in international politics and security said threats by U.S. President Donald Trump to make the Canada the 51st state may be part of poorly conceived negotiating strategy to secure economic concessions.
But he is not convinced that's the case.
"I think he (Trump) is speaking perhaps quite authentically, when he says that he sees some kind of future in which the United States is able to use its power to dominate its western hemispheric neighbours and ultimately subjugate them to its will," Will Greaves, associate professor of international relations at the University of Victoria, said. "I think that is the vision that he has."
Trump last month talked about using economic force to annex Canada and Greaves said several examples exist, whereby larger states have used economic forces like sanctions and tariffs to undermine the sovereignty of smaller states.
"But not between friendly countries," Greaves said. "I think that is the key. So tariffs have been used alongside economic sanctions as a means of coercive diplomacy between hostile states, but it is not something that is done to one's friends and allies and I think that is the major change that we are seeing at the moment."
Trump has in the past said that Canada could avoid tariffs by simply joining the United States,but Greaves said he is not aware of a case, whereby a state was using such means to end the sovereignty of another country against its will.
"Economic sanctions and tariffs can be used as a tool to get another state to do what you want them to do, but it's a tool that makes everybody poorer," Greaves said. "So it's not really a good tool to use if you want to take over a territory for your own profit, or your economic well-being."
Leaving aside a handful of business voices, political and public opposition in Canada to Trump's offer is overwhelming. But there are examples where countries have voluntarily surrendered some, if not their entire sovereignty for economic gains.
Perhaps the most famous recent example happened in 1989-90 when East Germany's formally joined the territory of West Germany on the promise of political liberties and economic prosperity. Members of the European Union have also over the years given up sovereignty in some areas, including trade, for economic gains.
"You have got lots of examples of countries choosing to reduce trade barriers between themselves in order to have better economic conditions and better relationships with each other," Greaves said. "But it doesn't work as well in the opposite direction."
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau last week called Trump's desire to make Canada the 51st state a "real thing." Greaves said confirming that is not easy because "it requires an assessment of what's happening inside Trump's mind and what his actual motivations are and that is difficult thing to determine."
He added that annexation, which means full incorporation into the United States, appears to be an "extremely unrealistic prospect" for several reasons.
"But clearly, Mr. Trump is looking to make it such that Canada is firmly subordinated to the political and economic priorities of his administration, regardless of whatever we wish, whatever our own democratic institutions and leaders have to say about it," Greaves said. "He doesn't put any stock in Canadian democracy or Canadian institutions to govern Canada and he thinks that Canada should be governed from Washington, whether's formal or informal."
So might Trump envision a situation, whereby Canada becomes what Belarus is to Russia today -- a nominally independent, but ultimately subservient client?
"I think that is a very good comparison," Greaves said, pointing to another potential parallel,e Ukraine prior to 2014. Russia annexed Crimea after pro-western protesters had overthrown a pro-Russian government.
"And the Russian government said, no, you are not actually a real country. We don't recognize your sovereignty or independence. You are not allowed to make this choice.'"
The current situation comes as the federal Liberals choose a new leader, who will ultimately become Canada's new prime minister, with an election happening later this year. According to Greaves, there is virtually no chance annexation talk would end if Canadians were to elect a Conservative government in Ottawa.
"My view is that there would be very, very little difference in Mr. Trump's behaviour towards Canada, if there had been a Conservative government already in office, or if there was to be a change in government in the coming months. I don't see any particular reason why that would change Donald Trump's behaviour whatsoever."
As Canadian leaders and businesses are confronted with the task of quickly reworking decades of established trading relations in the face of an increasingly protectionist United States, a comparable situation looms when it comes to Canada's security arrangements, which date back to the period after the Second World War.
"So it is not exaggeration to say that that bilateral relationship is the bedrock on which every aspect of of modern Canadian defense and security planning has been built," Greaves said. "So when we are talking about a belligerent or hostile relationship with the United States, it could potentially touch all aspects of Canadian defense and security planning institutions."
Potentially impacted institutions include NORAD (responsible for North American defense), NATO (which the United States has threatened to leave) and the Five Eyes (the intelligence alliance consisting of New Zealand, Australia, the United Kingdom, Canada and the United States).
"These are very, very significant questions we would have to re-think, virtually from the ground up, what it means to defend Canada," Greaves said. "How would we go about doing that and to what extent can that be done effectively without an American partner?"
What moves by the United States should give Canadians concern when it comes to the security relationship?
"It can be difficult to diagnose events, when you are living through them, but I fear that looking back in the future, we will say that we are already seeing those signs, right?" Greaves said. "So the very fact that Donald Trump is threatening those allies (Denmark by way of Greenland, Canada) and those territories is itself already a very significant challenge to the integrity of the NATO alliance."
