Language and immigration politics were back at the forefront in Quebec鈥檚 national assembly last week, as Premier Fran莽ois Legault drew criticism for sounding the alarm over a decline in the number of people who speak French at home.
Legault declared on Wednesday that 鈥渘obody could deny鈥� French is in decline, saying fewer Quebecers were speaking the language at home as well as at work.
His comments 鈥� which came after a weekend speech in which he said the survival of the Quebec nation depended on the province gaining greater control over immigration 鈥� sparked fiery rebukes from opposition politicians, who accused him of scapegoating immigrants who might speak their first languages at home even if they鈥檝e learned French.
Demographers who spoke to The Canadian Press agreed that French is declining slowly but said the portrait is complex and reversing the trend is even more so.
Liberal immigration critic Saul Polo urged Legault to retract his statements, saying 鈥渢he language spoken at home should not be the premier鈥檚 business.鈥�
鈥淕o tell the Armenian community, which is here for five generations, that fled a genocide; go tell the Lebanese community, which fled civil wars; the Cambodian community, the Colombian community, who don鈥檛 have French as a first language, that we represent a threat to Quebec,鈥� he said in the legislature.
Legault, meanwhile, said the language spoken at home is one indicator his government considers, insisting his government鈥檚 sole goal was to ensure French remains Quebec鈥檚 common language.
鈥淚f there鈥檚 nobody in Quebec who speaks French at home, it means French will eventually disappear,鈥� he told a news conference in Quebec City.
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Alain B茅langer, a demographics professor at the Institut national de la recherche scientifique, says it鈥檚 clear that the number of people who speak French at home is declining because of an increasing number of immigrants who are allophone 鈥� whose mother tongue is neither English nor French.
He said that while it鈥檚 an indicator of French levels, a far more important measure is whether children of immigrants integrate into French or English.
鈥淚t鈥檚 not so bad if allophones, whether Spanish, Arabic, Punjabi or Tagalog, continue to use their language at home,鈥� he said. 鈥淲hat鈥檚 more important is the second generation that has to choose between English and French.鈥�
B茅langer says that while more immigrants are choosing French than English 鈥� about 60 per cent 鈥� it isn鈥檛 enough to maintain the linguistic balance in the province, which could require closer to 90 per cent.
He said the result is an overall decline in the French language 鈥� one that is very slow but is tough to reverse.
鈥淒emographics are like an ocean liner, not a canoe,鈥� he said. 鈥淚t doesn鈥檛 turn on a dime.鈥�
Calvin Veltman, a retired sociolinguist and demographer who taught at Universit茅 du Qu茅bec 脿 Montr茅al, takes a more optimistic view. While he agrees French has declined slightly since 2001, he believes the integration of immigrants into French-speaking society has been a 鈥渞emarkable success.鈥� A large part of that success is due to Bill 101鈥檚 requirement that children of immigrants attend school in French.
He takes issue with how many people analyze language data, saying they tend to exclude from the francophone group allophones who speak French as well as their first language at home.
He said the oft-cited 60 per cent number of immigrants who integrate into French includes those who arrived long ago and their children. By his calculations, about 75 per cent of the immigrants who have arrived in the province since 2001 have chosen French over English 鈥� which is probably as high as it will ever get, in his opinion.
Statistics Canada found that as of 2016, 94.5 per cent of the Quebec population was able to carry on a conversation in French. The number of people who spoke French at home was 87.1 per cent, similar to the previous census, but the survey also reported that families were increasingly likely to speak another language as well.
However, projections released in 2017 found that the proportion speaking French at home could go from 82 per cent in 2011 to around 75 per cent in 2036. Meanwhile, English spoken at home could rise from 11 per cent in 2011 to 13 per cent in 2036.
Both Veltman and B茅langer noted that official statistics don鈥檛 always present a clear picture of what鈥檚 happening.
Veltman said there is a large group of people who speak both French and English at home and who can be hard to categorize.
鈥淲e鈥檙e becoming a much more bilingual society,鈥� he said. 鈥淚f that鈥檚 dangerous to French, I don鈥檛 know.鈥�
B茅langer, for his part, questions the 94.5 per cent French rate. He noted that there was widespread opposition in the anglophone community to a recent proposal requiring students at English-language junior colleges to take three of their core classes in French 鈥� which suggests the bilingualism level of many English-speakers isn鈥檛 very high.
Marc Termote, a retired professor at Universit茅 de Montr茅al, believes the fundamental problem of language decline will be nearly impossible to avoid because French Quebecers have so few children.
However, he said the process will take centuries, not decades, because of the strong measures in place. He said it鈥檚 鈥渦nthinkable鈥� that Quebec will become another Louisiana, where French has all but disappeared 鈥� a comparison evoked by Legault last week.
鈥淚 can鈥檛 imagine he really thought that in 50 years we鈥檒l be at two per cent of francophones in Quebec,鈥� he said of Legault.
Morgan Lowrie, The Canadian Press
