President Donald Trump鈥檚 stunning proposal to forcibly transfer hundreds of thousands of Palestinians out of the Gaza Strip and develop it as a tourist destination faces major obstacles.
The Palestinians and many others view such plans as ethnic cleansing, an attempt to drive them from their homeland after Israel鈥檚 15-month offensive against Hamas rendered much of it uninhabitable. It was also seen as an attempt to liquidate their decades-long struggle for a state, which has wide international support.
Arab countries, including Egypt and Jordan 鈥� close U.S. allies at peace with Israel 鈥� have condemned such plans and roundly rejected Trump鈥檚 suggestion that they take in more Palestinian refugees.
Saudi Arabia issued a rare overnight statement rejecting the idea of transfer and reiterating that it won鈥檛 normalize relations with Israel 鈥� a key goal of the Trump administration 鈥� without the establishment of a Palestinian state including Gaza.
The proposal also risks undermining the ceasefire in Gaza and the continued release of hostages taken in Hamas鈥� Oct. 7, 2023, attack that triggered the war. Trump has claimed credit for brokering the truce, but its future is now more uncertain.
The Palestinians don鈥檛 want to leave
Palestinians view Gaza as an integral part of their national homeland and aspire to an independent state in Gaza, the West Bank and east Jerusalem, territories Israel captured in the 1967 Mideast war.
Most of Gaza鈥檚 population are descendants of refugees from the 1948 war surrounding Israel鈥檚 creation, when hundreds of thousands of Palestinians fled or were driven out of what is now Israel. They were not allowed to return because they would have outnumbered the new state鈥檚 Jewish population.
The Palestinian ambassador to the United Nations, Riyad Mansour, suggested that if Trump鈥檚 goal is to send the Palestinians to a 鈥渉appy, nice place,鈥� they should return to their ancestral homes in Israel.
The ideal of remaining on one鈥檚 land despite threats of expulsion is at the heart of the Palestinians鈥� struggle and self-identity, and was on vivid display last week when hundreds of thousands returned to northern Gaza despite its near-total destruction.
Both Hamas and the Western-backed Palestinian Authority, which recognizes Israel and cooperates with it on security, have vehemently condemned Trump鈥檚 proposal.
Arab countries will not accept Palestinian refugees
Egypt and Jordan, which made peace with Israel decades ago, have repeatedly rejected previous proposals to resettle Palestinians within their borders.
They too fear that Israel would never allow the Palestinians to return, and that a mass influx of Palestinian refugees would once again destabilize the region, as it did in the decades after 1948, when it was a key factor in Lebanon鈥檚 civil war and Israel鈥檚 two invasions of that country. Both countries also have struggling economies that would have a hard time absorbing large numbers of refugees.
Trump suggested that wealthy Gulf countries could pay to resettle the Palestinians, but that appears unlikely.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have joined Egypt and Jordan in rejecting any transfer plans, and the Saudis repudiated the plan almost immediately.
The Saudi statement reiterated remarks made in September by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who said Saudi Arabia would not normalize relations with Israel without the creation of a Palestinian state with east Jerusalem as its capital.
The kingdom said its 鈥渦nwavering position is non-negotiable and not subject to compromises.鈥�
Trump has leverage, but so do Mideast leaders
Trump seems to relish using tariffs, sanctions and aid cutoffs to pressure allies and adversaries alike, and could apply economic pressure on countries like Egypt and Jordan, which have long relied on American aid.
But those countries have levers of their own in the face of what they see as a major threat to their national security. And wealthy Gulf countries, which have also historically provided aid to Egypt and Jordan, could help cushion any economic blow.
Egypt has already warned that any mass transfer of Palestinians into the Sinai Peninsula bordering Gaza could undermine its peace treaty with Israel 鈥� a cornerstone of regional stability and American influence for nearly a half-century.
Egypt and Qatar have also served as key mediators with Hamas in the talks that led to the ceasefire, and both are working with Trump鈥檚 Mideast envoy, Steve Witkoff, to try to extend it.
Israelis welcome the plan, but hostages are a priority
The idea of mass transfer has historically been confined to the far-right in Israel, but on Wednesday, mainstream leaders said Trump鈥檚 plan was worth considering.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, at the press conference with Trump, acknowledged that 鈥渏aws drop鈥� when the U.S. president proposes unorthodox ideas, but then 鈥減eople scratch their heads and they say, 鈥榊ou know, he鈥檚 right.鈥欌��
Benny Gantz, a centrist politician and former general long seen as a more moderate alternative to Netanyahu, said Trump鈥檚 proposal showed 鈥渃reative, original and intriguing thinking,鈥� and should be studied alongside other war goals, 鈥減rioritizing the return of all the hostages.鈥�
Opposition leader Yair Lapid, a fierce critic of Netanyahu who has voiced support for a two-state solution in the past, did not object to the idea. Instead, he said in an interview with local media that it was too early to react to Trump鈥檚 proposal since there are no concrete details, and that returning the hostages was most important.
The current phase of the Gaza ceasefire, in which Hamas is to release 33 hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, ends in early March. The second phase, in which the remaining 60 or so hostages would be freed in exchange for more prisoners, is being negotiated.
Hamas has said it will not release the remaining hostages without an end to the war and a full Israeli withdrawal 鈥� which would likely preclude any forcible transfer.
Israel鈥檚 far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who supports what he refers to as the 鈥渧oluntary emigration鈥� of large numbers of Palestinians and the re-establishment of Jewish settlements in Gaza, has threatened to leave Netanyahu鈥檚 coalition if he doesn鈥檛 resume the war after the first phase, which would likely lead to early elections. He welcomed Trump鈥檚 proposal.
The resumption of the war would put the remaining hostages鈥� lives at risk, and there鈥檚 no guarantee it would eliminate Hamas, which still controls most of Gaza. It would also undo what Trump has portrayed as a major accomplishment and further delay any normalization with Saudi Arabia.
An opening gambit?
There鈥檚 another possibility: That Trump鈥檚 proposal is an opening gambit in a bargaining process aimed at eventually securing the kind of Middle East mega-deal he says he is seeking.
It was only last week that Trump was threatening major tariffs against Canada and Mexico, America鈥檚 two biggest trading partners, before putting them on hold after their leaders took steps to appease his concerns about border security and drug trafficking.
During his first term, Trump flirted with the possibility of Israel annexing parts of the occupied West Bank before the idea was shelved as part of a normalization agreement with the United Arab Emirates.
Trump could ultimately pare down his proposal or put it on hold in exchange for concessions from Arab leaders, perhaps on Gaza鈥檚 reconstruction or on normalization with Israel 鈥� though the Saudi statement appeared to rule that out.
There could be more clarity when the shock wears off, and when Trump meets with Jordan鈥檚 King Abdullah II at the White House next week.
